The Euro is running out of reasons to rise, inflation might push the BoE to hike which can boost the British Pound, and a supply glut might send crude oil lower. What else in 2018?
These are just a sample of our top trading opportunities for 2018. Do you want to learn about more of them? View our complete guide here.
Short: EUR vs. USD, GBP – The Euro is Running Out of Reasons to Rise
By Ilya Spivak, Senior Strategist
The Euro enjoyed an undeniably stellar year in 2017. That seemed improbable on January 1 amid fears of Eurosceptic triumph in key elections. Investors still shell-shocked after the Brexit referendum and the US presidential election braced for the worst. Their fears did not materialize. The status quo held in the Netherlands, France elected an energetic centrist in Emmanuel Macron, Italy managed the abrupt transition from the Renzi to the Gentolini government, and Spain muddled through a separatist flare-up in Catalonia. A pickup in economic growth sealed the deal, handing the single currency double-digit gains on the year.
Having bypassed these political pitfalls however, the Euro may be out of reasons to continue building higher. The ECB isn’t likely to be very helpful just as the spotlight returns to monetary policy. It has already set the near-term fate of QE asset purchases and probably won’t be quick to alter it. Significant tightening seems unlikely as the 2017’s Euro gains filter into on-year CPI data, slowing progress to the inflation target. Meanwhile, a nasty outturn in Brexit negotiations remains a potent threat to financial stability on both sides of the English Channel. Tactically, short EURUSD and EURGBPpositions seem best to express Euro-negative policy divergence and relative underpricing of Brexit risk premium.
These are just a sample of our top trading opportunities for 2018. Do you want to more about them? View our complete guide here.
Long: GBP/NZD As Hurdles to Inflation Diverge for BoE and RBNZ